Test Results & Bot Performance
📋 Why Transparency Matters
Most trading content online shows only winning trades. This hub shows everything — wins, losses, drawdowns, failed strategies. The goal: give SA traders realistic expectations before risking capital. Demo accounts only. Past performance does NOT guarantee future results.
Featured Results
30-day test of RSI + EMA strategy on Volatility 75 Index. $1,000 starting balance (~R18,500). Full trade log, equity curve, drawdown analysis, and comparison against 4 other strategies.
5-Strategy Comparison Summary
From our 30-day test, here’s how 5 different strategies performed on the same V75 demo account:
| Strategy | Net P/L | Win Rate | Profit Factor | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ RSI + EMA Crossover (winner) | +$184 | 70.1% | 2.34 | -6.2% |
| Pure RSI 30/70 (no filter) | +$87 | 61% | 1.58 | -12.4% |
| EMA Cross Only | -$22 | 54% | 0.95 | -9.8% |
| Higher/Lower Digit Barrier | -$83 | 52% | 0.88 | -15.6% |
| ⛔ Martingale (RSI base) — FAILED | -$420 | 58% | 0.32 | -42% |
⚠️ Key Lesson
Notice the Martingale strategy had 58% win rate (better than EMA Cross at 54%) but lost $420 while EMA Cross lost only $22. Doubling stake after losses turned positive win-rate into catastrophic loss. Position sizing matters more than win rate.
What This Means in ZAR
Translating the results into rand for SA context (at ~R18.50/USD):
- Starting capital: $1,000 ≈ R18,500
- Best strategy net profit: +$184 ≈ R3,400 in 30 days
- Annualised (if pattern held): ~220% — but extremely unrealistic to maintain
- Realistic live expectation: 70-85% of demo, so ~R2,400-R2,900/month on R18,500 capital
- Martingale loss: -$420 ≈ -R7,770 in 30 days (42% of capital wiped)
✓ What Worked
1. Dual filter (RSI + EMA) — fewer signals but higher quality
2. Fixed 2% stake — preserved capital through drawdown
3. Daily loss limit (5%) — stopped Day 8 from getting worse
4. 30-day commitment — patience through Day 8-13 horror period
5. Trade journaling — identified pattern of RSI fails during strong moves
Honest Drawdown Analysis
The winning strategy still had a -6.2% drawdown in Days 8-13. Here’s how this felt psychologically:
- Day 7: Balance peak at $1,108 — feeling confident
- Day 8-9: Three losses in a row. Daily loss limit kicked in.
- Day 10: Another loss. Balance at $1,041. Tempted to “fix” strategy.
- Day 11-13: Two wins, one loss. Balance recovers slowly.
- Day 14+: Recovery and continued growth.
This is what every profitable trader experiences. The temptation to abandon strategy during drawdowns is the single biggest reason traders fail. If you can’t sit through -6% on demo without panicking, you’re not ready for live.
Realistic Expectations
📊 What to Expect on Live
Live performance is typically 70-85% of demo due to:
• Slippage: real execution worse than demo
• Psychology: fear/greed don’t exist on demo
• Market regime changes: what worked April may fail in May
• Spread costs: live spreads slightly higher than demo
So 70% demo win rate may become 60-63% live. +18% monthly demo may become +13-15% live. Plan accordingly.
What We’re Testing Next
Upcoming tests (subject to time and results):
- Ichimoku Cloud strategy on forex pairs (60 days)
- Python-based RSI + ML filter (custom build)
- MT5 EA on V100 Index (different volatility)
- Multi-asset portfolio rotation
- Live account scaling: $500 → $2,000 progression report
How We Test
Our testing methodology:
- Strategy formulation: backtest 6+ months on TradingView
- Demo deployment: minimum 30 days on Deriv demo
- Full trade log: every entry, exit, P/L recorded in spreadsheet
- Drawdown monitoring: daily snapshots of equity
- No mid-test changes: rules locked at Day 1
- Honest reporting: failures published same as wins
- Independent verification: screenshots and screen recordings
Disclaimers (Must Read)
⚠️ Critical Caveats
• Results are from demo accounts — not real money
• 30 days is a small sample — need 100+ days for statistical confidence
• April 2026 market conditions may not repeat
• Win rate ≠ guarantee — 70% can still mean a 10-loss streak
• Your results will vary from ours due to entry timing, slippage, fees
• This is educational content, not investment advice
Read full Disclaimer before trading.